Tiered Approach to Resilience Assessment

Regulatory agencies have long adopted a three‐tier framework for risk assessment. We build on this structure to propose a tiered approach for resilience assessment that can be integrated into the existing regulatory processes. Comprehensive approaches to assessing resilience at appropriate and operational scales, reconciling analytical complexity as needed with stakeholder needs and resources available, and ultimately creating actionable recommendations to enhance resilience are still lacking. Our proposed framework consists of tiers by which analysts can select resilience assessment and decision support tools to inform associated management actions relative to the scope and urgency of the risk and the capacity of resource managers to improve system resilience. The resilience management framework proposed is not intended to supplant either risk management or the many existing efforts of resilience quantification method development, but instead provide a guide to selecting tools that are appropriate for the given analytic need. The goal of this tiered approach is to intentionally parallel the tiered approach used in regulatory contexts so that resilience assessment might be more easily and quickly integrated into existing structures and with existing policies.     

Risk Modeling of Interdependent Complex Systems of Systems: Theory and Practice

The emergence of the complexity characterizing our systems of systems (SoS) requires a reevaluation of the way we model, assess, manage, communicate, and analyze the risk thereto. Current models for risk analysis of emergent complex SoS are insufficient because too often they rely on the same risk functions and models used for single systems. These models commonly fail to incorporate the complexity derived from the networks of interdependencies and interconnectedness (I–I) characterizing SoS. There is a need to reevaluate currently practiced risk analysis to respond to this reality by examining, and thus comprehending, what makes emergent SoS complex. The key to evaluating the risk to SoS lies in understanding the genesis of characterizing I–I of systems manifested through shared states and other essential entities within and among the systems that constitute SoS. The term “essential entities” includes shared decisions, resources, functions, policies, decisionmakers, stakeholders, organizational setups, and others. This undertaking can be accomplished by building on state‐space theory, which is fundamental to systems engineering and process control. This article presents a theoretical and analytical framework for modeling the risk to SoS with two case studies performed with the MITRE Corporation and demonstrates the pivotal contributions made by shared states and other essential entities to modeling and analysis of the risk to complex SoS. A third case study highlights the multifarious representations of SoS, which require harmonizing the risk analysis process currently applied to single systems when applied to complex SoS.     

Recognizing Structural Nonidentifiability: When Experiments Do Not Provide Information About Important Parameters and Misleading Models Can Still Have Great Fit

In the quest to model various phenomena, the foundational importance of parameter identifiability to sound statistical modeling may be less well appreciated than goodness of fit. Identifiability concerns the quality of objective information in data to facilitate estimation of a parameter, while nonidentifiability means there are parameters in a model about which the data provide little or no information. In purely empirical models where parsimonious good fit is the chief concern, nonidentifiability (or parameter redundancy) implies overparameterization of the model. In contrast, nonidentifiability implies underinformativeness of available data in mechanistically derived models where parameters are interpreted as having strong practical meaning. This study explores illustrative examples of structural nonidentifiability and its implications using mechanistically derived models (for repeated presence/absence analyses and dose–response of Escherichia coli O157:H7 and norovirus) drawn from quantitative microbial risk assessment. Following algebraic proof of nonidentifiability in these examples, profile likelihood analysis and Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo with uniform priors are illustrated as tools to help detect model parameters that are not strongly identifiable. It is shown that identifiability should be considered during experimental design and ethics approval to ensure generated data can yield strong objective information about all mechanistic parameters of interest. When Bayesian methods are applied to a nonidentifiable model, the subjective prior effectively fabricates information about any parameters about which the data carry no objective information. Finally, structural nonidentifiability can lead to spurious models that fit data well but can yield severely flawed inferences and predictions when they are interpreted or used inappropriately.     

Media Exposure to Terrorism and Perception of Immigrants as a Threat: The Role of Emotional Intelligence and Psychophysiological Self-Regulation

To better understand how media exposure to terrorism-related images can lead to perceiving immigrants as more threatening, in the present study we manipulated participants’ exposure to media coverage of terrorist attacks and investigated how this may influence people's perception of Arab immigrants. Considering the important role of regulatory abilities when facing stressful events like terrorist attacks, we measured individual differences in both trait emotional intelligence and resting heart rate variability (HRV). Results showed that participants perceived Arab immigrants as more threatening in the media exposure condition than in the control condition. Importantly, there were moderating effects of both trait emotional intelligence and HRV. People with lower trait emotional intelligence or lower HRV at rest felt more threatened in the media exposure condition compared to the control condition, whereas this effect was not observed among participants with higher trait emotional intelligence or higher resting HRV. The present study highlights some of the complexities related to how media exposure to terrorism-related images influences people's reactions to, and evaluations of, an outgroup that is related to the perpetrators of the attacks.     

Demand for decision autonomy and the desire to avoid responsibility in risky environments: Experimental evidence

This paper experimentally studies individuals’ willingness to pay for the authority to make risky decisions for themselves, and the willingness to take responsibility for others, as primary determinants of leadership willingness. We consider a setup involving a pair of individuals, where one individual is designated to make both parties’ decisions by default. Depending on treatment, either party can express a willingness to pay to change this situation. If one’s willingness to pay to make her own decision herself is positive (negative), we interpret it as a demand for autonomy (a desire to delegate). On the flip side, if one’s willingness to pay to avoid making a decision on behalf of another person is positive (negative), we interpret it as a desire to avoid responsibility (a demand for authority). We find that on average, individuals are willing to pay positive amounts of money to make their decisions themselves, and incur positive but smaller opportunity costs for the right to make decisions for others. Certain individual and contextual characteristics emerge as important predictors. Notably, (1) men are more likely to demand both autonomy and authority at the same time, (2) individuals with other regarding preferences are more likely to pay to avoid taking responsibility for others’ decisions when the probability of loss is high. Exploring differences between individuals’ own decisions and the decisions they make on behalf of others, we find that subjects with other-regarding preferences tend to “cautious-shift” when making decisions on behalf of others. Also, we find that individuals who would like to avoid responsibility also tend to “shift” their decisions when put in a decision-making role. The results have implications for the allocation of decision-making authority in pairs and leadership.     

Rural-urban differences in college students’ cardiovascular risk perceptions

Abstract

Objective: To examine rural-urban differences in college students’ cardiovascular risk perceptions. Participants: College students in rural (n?=?61) and urban (n?=?57) Kentucky counties were recruited from November 2012 to May 2014. Methods: This was a secondary data analysis of a cross-sectional study examining rural-urban differences in cardiovascular risk factors. Students rated their risk for developing high blood pressure, diabetes, high cholesterol, heart disease, having a stroke, and gaining excess weight. Chi-square and logistic regression were used for data analysis. Results: Rural students had lower odds of perceived high risk for developing high blood pressure compared to urban students (odds ratio (OR): 0.32, 95% CI: 0.11–0.96) after adjusting for race, sex, and body mass index. This association was not observed after adjusting for healthcare access variables. No other significant differences were observed. Conclusions: Efforts to raise perceived risk for developing hypertension among rural college students may be warranted.     

Knowledge of Suicide Risk Factors,But Not Suicide Ideation Severity,Is Greater Among College Students Who Viewed 13 Reasons Why

Abstract

Objective: To test associations between viewing 13 Reasons Why, Season 1 and past week suicide ideation severity, behavior risk, stigma, and knowledge in college students. To explore whether personal exposure to suicide and depressive symptom severity moderated these associations. Participants: Eight-hundred and eighteen college students, 64% (n?=?522) of whom watched 13 Reasons Why. Methods: Students completed surveys online. Multivariate negative binomial regressions were used to test associations between watching 13 Reasons Why and suicide-related variables, and interaction terms. Results: Suicide ideation severity and suicide behavior risk were not significantly associated with viewing 13 Reasons Why; however, there was limited statistical power to detect associations. The association between watching 13 Reasons Why and greater suicide knowledge was stronger among those who did not have personal exposure to suicide. Conclusions: 13 Reasons Why may be a platform for psychoeducation on suicide, particularly among those who do not have personal exposure.     

‘Seeing through their Eyes’: Towards Understanding Risk and Protection Perspectives of Young Bedouin Children in the Unrecognised Villages of the Naqab

This article is based on a participatory, context-informed study that examined perception of ‘risk’ and ‘protection’ among 30 Bedouin children aged four to five. It was conducted in the Bedouin unrecognised villages — Southern Israel and utilised photography, drawings and verbal explanations. The analysis yielded seven themes representing children’s perceptions of risk and protection. It indicated that children facing extreme adversity were aware of numerous risk conditions, including a lack of infrastructure and the fear of losing their homes, thus adversely affecting their well-being. Children’s insights, and suggested modes of protection, as the study findings reveal, are crucial for promoting children’s welfare.     

全球价值链背景下加工贸易企业升级路径分析

金融危机以来国际贸易保护主义色彩浓郁，中国内部粗放型经济增长方式存在一定的不可持续性和人口红利开始逐渐消失，中国加工贸易嵌入发达国家主导的全球价值链低附加值和低生产率问题引起了学者的注意。随着外部贸易环境、国内新常态要素禀赋结构的变化和深化供给侧结构性改革的需要，推动加工贸易企业升级已经成为中国经济结构调整的一个重要部分。通过分析中国加工贸易的起源、发展和现状，描述全球价值链背景下加工贸易的若干特征和“低端锁定”问题，引出了融资约束对企业经营决策、出口行为以及企业全球价值链上地位的影响，并围绕以生产过程、产品升级和功能升级为主的产业内升级和以劳动密集型向技术密集型转变为特征的产业间升级两个角度，提出了中国加工贸易企业在全球价值链上攀升的路径。研究认为，着重强调人力资本积累、本土企业技术外溢的吸收能力以及自主研发能力的培养，同时结合国际产能合作和“一带一路”倡议等现实背景，实现东西双向开放，塑造以我为主的包容性的区域价值链和国内价值链等，是中国加工贸易企业升级的路径和新机遇。     

The Child Abuse Risk Evaluation Dutch Version (CARE-NL): A retrospective validation study

Abstract

The Child Abuse Risk Evaluation – Dutch version (CARE-NL) is a structured professional guideline for assessing the risk of all types of child abuse. The CARE-NL comprises 18 risk factors: eight Parental characteristics, three Parent-Child interaction factors, five Family factors, one Child vulnerability factor, and an extra factor for child sexual abuse risk. We examined interrater reliability and predictive accuracy of the instrument in a retrospective study at Advice and Reporting Centers on Child Abuse (ARCCA) in The Netherlands. The ARCCA files contained limited information on Parental risk factors, while parental characteristics, such as mental disorder and substance abuse, are the most important risk factors for (repeated) child abuse. On the other hand, the majority of the files included ample information on child and family characteristics. The CARE-NL could be reliably coded by trained raters and the predictive accuracy for out-of-home placement (AUC = .73) and placement of the child under court supervision (AUC = .78), at two years follow-up, was adequate. Use of the CARE-NL ensures that the assessment of the risk of child abuse focuses on the most important, empirically based risk factors in a structured and coherent way.